and the TV industry may be changing how things are packaged for potential customers, is it reasonable to expect the carriage fee to remain as a coconut or even grow to a watermelon vs. shrink to the size of an orange or even back peanuts? If the carriage fee bubble pops, then I would think that will have a significant impact on the conferences and future expansion plans. You may even seen schools leave the existing P5 conferences to form their own conference because their slice of the pie has gotten smaller over the years.

You may be right about ESPN not willing to consider launching the ACCN without Pitt, Syracuse, and BC. However, it is possible another network would have given the ACC just as good of a deal as ESPN and maybe even launch an ACCN with a 12-member ACC. It isn't clear how much shopping around the ACC did before signing with ESPN. I always saw the addition of Pitt and Syracuse as more of the ACC's way to resolve its "BC Island" problem. If the ACC had decided to add Da, VT, and WVU, then I am not sure if the desire to expand north of the Mason-Dixon Line would have been as strong. Then again, if the ACC the foresight to go after Penn State either prior to joining the Big Ten or pursue Penn State when they were toxic because of the scandal, I would think things would have played out differently.

As far as whether ESPN would have to pay whatever the Big Ten demands to advertise in that part of the country, that may be debatable. I believe ESPN's current media contract with the Big Ten was put in place prior to the ACC adding Pitt and Syracuse. The Big Ten wouldn't gain any carriage fees with Pitt, so I am not sure the Big Ten would ever add Pitt as long as Penn State is a member. Even if the Big Ten did add Syracuse, ESPN may not be required to re-negotiate the current contract.